The Preakness is my favorite live sporting event; not only because of the animalistic behavior of everyone in the infield, but because I like betting on every race without an inkling of race horse knowledge (except for the Triple Crown race of course). You can call it a degenerate activity, I call it FUN! So before I actually start my preview I would like to preface it by saying I have hit the trifecta three years running. Also by just writing that I just jinxed myself this year, so you can basically stop reading right now. This will basically work like my Kentucky Derby preview. I will preview all 13 entries and then paint the picture of how I envision the race to break down:
1. Macho Again – Winner of the Derby Trials just 3 weeks ago. He was extremely tired after the race according to trainer Dallas Stewart. Will make a move before the final turn home and if he can get the space might be able to hit the board.
2. Tres Barrachos – A speed horse that like to get to the lead out of the start. Finished third to Gayego and Z Fortune in the Arkansas Derby. Lacks the speed late to compete with Big Brown and the closers.
3. Icabad Crane – Winner of a race at Pimlico, but has gained considerable amount of weight since. As a closer the weight might be too much for this length and level of competition. Throwout
4. Yankee Bravo – Winner of the California Derby, but hasn’t looked great in his last two races. Has the closing speed but the length might be too much. Super or tri tickets
5. Behindathebar – OUT OF RACE
6. Racecar Rhapsody – Yet again another closer without much early speed. Probably be too far back to make much noise or hit the board
7. Big Brown – Kentucky Derby winner still undefeated and heavy favorite to win. Too good not to win
8. Kentucky Bear – Only three career starts, all this year. Has the speed to contend until the end. Most likely stalk the pace and turn it on heading into the final turn for home. Exotics play
9. Stevil – No real speed to be considered an early contender or late closer. Will probably be ahead of the closers heading home, but not enough speed to hold on. Throwout
10. Riley Tucker – Late entry into the race that will press the early leaders along the backstretch. Has enough speed to contend for the board.
11. Giant Moon – Will be one of the horses that will jump out to the lead. Has been too excited during workouts this week. Don’t expect him to keep up the pace the whole race. Throwout
12. Gayego - Only other Derby horse to race here. Will wear blinkers so that should help keep focus, but his bad post position won’t help. If he can keep the distractions away he can hit the board. Exotics play
13. Hey Byrn – Should be in the group with Big Brown and Riley Tucker to press for the lead along the backstretch. Might not have the speed to compete with Big Brown, but might just have enough to hold off the closers. Exotics
The race will start with the three speed horses vying for the lead. Those horses being Tres Borrachos, Gayego, and Giant Moon. Big Brown, Riley Tucker, and Hey Byrn will make their move along the backstretch. I see Big Brown leading with Gayego, Riley Tucker and Hey Byrn trailing close behind. Now come the middle runners in Kentucky Bear and Macho Again. The final turn home will have all the closers (most likely Yankee Bravo) trying to find a clear path to make their move to catch Big Brown. Down the stretch they come and it’s Big Brown leading with Kentucky Bear, Gayego, Hey Byrn and Riley Tucker trying to close. No one will be able to catch the Derby winner as he heads to Belmont two-thirds of the way toward a Triple Crown.
Trifecta ticket off this preview:
7 / 4,8,12,13 / 1,4,8,10,12,13